Ukraine: In the near future, the price growth for Ukrainian corn may be expected

At the beginning of the 2017/18 marketing year, maize exports from Ukraine remained at an extremely low level. According to preliminary estimates, during the period from September to October, 587.000 tons of maize were exported, while in the same period last year about 1.430.000 tons of corn was exported. This trend is due to the low price of Russian fodder wheat, which makes it particularly competitive when exporting agricultural crops to China.

Such data was provided by the analyst of ODA Ukraine Pavel Martyshev.

According to him, such small volumes of exports significantly influenced the growth of prices, namely, restrained it. Initial prices in 2017/18 marketing year were much higher than in September 2016, but already in early November the price was almost 4 dollars per ton lower than last year.

Also, according to the data, the growth in prices for other agricultural forage crops was at a high level, due to significant export performance. Especially the price of barley increased. The cost of barley in August was equal to the cost of corn.

Pavel Martyshev believes that today the issue of demand in the foreign markets remains very important. Now all the factors indicate a sharp jump in prices in the second half of the export process. Corn is sold at a fairly low price and can become competitive in foreign markets.

One of the key factors is the increase in corn exports, especially to China, which has reduced its own corn crops. Also, a decrease in corn yields in the US and Brazil may lead to an increase in demand for Ukrainian corn.

An important factor affecting corn prices in Ukraine is the dollar exchange rate, since most of Ukrainian corn is exported. At the moment, the dollar exchange rate is stable, which supports the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn in the international market.

Thus, in the near future, a rise in corn prices in Ukraine is possible, but much will depend on global trends in the grain market and exchange rates. In any case, this may have a positive impact on Ukrainian corn producers, increasing their income.