UKRAINE: The harvest of grain crops for the current year is expected to be positive

 

According to analysts’ forecasts, the following figures are expected:

 

Crop Forecasts In comparison to 2020
Cereals and legumes 74 million tons +13%
Wheat 28 million tons +10%
Barley 8 million tons +2%
Corn 36 million tons +19%

 

Reasons that contributed to the positive forecasts:

– favourable conditions for overwintering winter crops and sowing spring crops,

– the prices that were in 20/21 constitute a high interest in the main crops.

If grain consumption in the domestic market remains at the same level, the volume of production in 21/22 will be able to create a potential for the export of Ukrainian grain in the amount of 54 million tons (19% higher than on 20/21, which is 46 million tons). That is 1 % less than the maximum figure that was reached in 19/20 (55 million tons). Also, wheat exports are expected at 20 million tons (13% higher), barley – 4 million tons (1% higher) and corn – 30 million tons (27% higher).

Despite all the optimistic forecasts, there will always be production and trade risks. In particular, drought, which is becoming habitual for the territory of Ukraine, can negatively affect the sowing of early crops in the final stages of the growing season and the formation of the yield for late crops. The logistics system may not stand the test of strength after the previous quiet season. Competitive risks and risks of non-tariff regulation are also big. A positive harvest of grain crops is expected in Ukraine this year. According to the data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the total volume of harvested grain crops exceeds last year’s indicators. Cultivation of grain crops is one of the main branches of agriculture in Ukraine, which provides a significant part of the export of agricultural products. At the same time, it is important to ensure the proper level of storage and processing of the crop to preserve its quality and competitiveness on the market.